Evaluations of the climate change regime’s effectiveness

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The climate change regime

In the previous chapter I described the climate change problem. In this chapter, I describe the international community’s principal response to climate change: the climate change regime. I describe four key components of the climate change regime and the political context around the negotiation of each component. Understanding the regime’s background puts the case studies in chapters five and six into context. The 1992 Convention The climate change regime was initiated in December 1990 when the UN General Assembly started negotiations on a global treaty to address climate change. The negotiation process lasted nearly 18 months and culminated in the adoption of the Convention on 9 May 1992. The negotiation process was relatively fast by traditional standards, especially considering the far-reaching implications addressing climate change would have.27 Joanna Depledge, a former climate change negotiator, notes six key elements of the Convention.

Regime theory and the climate change regime

In this chapter I undertake two tasks. First, I review the regime theory literature in order to define the key concepts in my research question and sub-questions. These concepts are: regimes, regime influence, and regime effectiveness. Defining these concepts clearly provides a solid theoretical grounding for my case studies. Second, I review previous scholarly literature on the climate change regime’s effectiveness. This will highlight the gap in the literature that this thesis aims to fill. Defining the regime What is the climate change regime exactly? This is an important question to answer because many people have different concepts in mind when they think of the phrase. Is it the bundle of treaties and agreements I described in chapter two? Or is it the building and staff of the UNFCCC secretariat in Bonn, Germany? Or is it something else? In order to get an academically rigorous definition, I turn to the regime theory literature, a subfield of International Relations theory.

Early evaluations

The first category of literature is the least relevant to my research question. It is relatively old now and consists of two articles (one from 1993 and one from 2000) from Daniel Bodansky, and a book by Joyetta Gupta written in 1997. Both scholars evaluated the design of the Convention (the core component of the climate change regime) and predicted its future effectiveness.83 Bodansky’s 1993 evaluation was fairly positive. He concluded that: “While immediate emissions stabilisation would be desirable, establishing a dynamic international process is more important for the longterm. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change makes a definite, albeit tentative, start along that road”. 84 His 2000 update reaffirmed his initial conclusion. He said the Convention has helped states establish and refine emissions reporting, develop emissions trading, and kept climate change in the spotlight

Recent evaluations

There are four recent evaluations of the climate change regime, and these can be split into two: a group of scholars who think the regime is ineffective, and one group, the IPCC, that does not come to a clear conclusion. The first group of scholars are Cinnamon Carlarne, Deborah Davenport, and Alexandar Zahar. All three consider the climate change regime ineffective. Carlarne, for example, points out that the climate change regime has failed to facilitate a global treaty and that global emissions continue to rise.87 In her view, “…while still offering an irreplaceable forum for global deliberation and a platform for norm creation – [the climate change regime] no longer offers the promise of a consolidated, comprehensive, collective-action based response to global climate change.”88 Put another way, the climate change regime has failed and the international community must find alternative solutions to addressing climate change. She stops short of suggesting we abandon it altogether, however. Adaptation offers a way to recreate it so that it can be effective.

Case study 1: New Zealand

In this chapter I evaluate the climate change regime’s effectiveness in New Zealand between 1988 and 2015. The chapter is split into five sections. The first section is a brief prelude to the climate change regime from 1988-1990 under the Palmer government. The second, third, and fourth sections correspond to the 1990-1999 Bolger government, the 1999-2008 Clark government, and the 2008-2015 Key government, respectively. The fifth and final section summarises the case study findings. Prelude to the climate change regime New Zealand began taking action on climate change when the problem first emerged in the late 1980s, even before the climate change regime was in place. In 1988 – four years before the Convention was signed – New Zealand established the New Zealand Climate Change Programme, the main purpose of which was to advise the government on how to best respond to climate change. 101 In August 1990, Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer announced New Zealand’s first emissions reductions target: a 20 percent cut in carbon emissions from 1990 levels by the year 2005. New Zealand’s target was in accordance with a “call to action” adopted at a 1988 international meeting on climate change in Toronto,102 which was a precursor to the Convention negotiations. Palmer also said New Zealand would review whether carbon emissions could be cut further, potentially reducing them by 40 percent from 1988 levels.

TABLE OF CONTENTS :

• List of figures
• List of tables
• INTRODUCTION
• Is the climate change regime ineffective?
• Research question and sub-questions
• Theoretical framework
• Thesis structure
• 1. THE CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM
  • What is climate change?
  • What current changes can be observed?
  • Future risks and impacts from a changing climate
  • A “diabolical” policy problem
  • Chapter summary
• 2. THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME
  • The 1992 Convention
  • The 1997 Kyoto Protocol
  • The 2009 Copenhagen Accord
  • The 2011 Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
  • Chapter summary
• 3. REGIME THEORY AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME
  • Defining the regime
  • Defining regime influence
  • Defining regime effectiveness
  • Evaluations of the climate change regime’s effectiveness
  • Chapter summary
• 4. METHOD
  • Delimitations
  • Research sources
  • Limitations to research sources
  • Chapter summary
• 5. CASE STUDY 1: NEW ZEALAND
  • Prelude to the climate change regime
  • 1990-1999: Jim Bolger’s National government
  • 1999-2008: Helen Clark’s Labour government
  • 2008-2015: John Key’s National government
  • Chapter summary
• 6. CASE STUDY 2: THE UNITED STATES
  • Prelude to the climate change regime
  • 1993-2000: The Clinton administration
  • 2001-2008: The George W. Bush administration
  • 2009-2015: The Obama administration
  • Chapter summary
• 7. CONCLUSION
  • Answering the research question
  • Theoretical implications
  • COP21 and the future of the climate change regime
  • Realist regime theory and a way forward for effective climate change action
  • Final thoughts
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY

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Regime effectiveness: an evaluation of the climate change regime’s effectiveness in New Zealand and the United States between 1988 and 2015