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LUCC studies in Ethiopia
Excessive LUC, especially forest conversion to both large-scale and small-scale agriculture by investors and small-scale farmers, is observed in the country and specifically in the SNNPR, where large tracts of natural tropical forests are found (Reusing, 1998 cited in Tadesse & Masresha, 2007:4). A number of studies tried to explain these dynamics by looking at the land use decisions made with respect to associated private benefits and the driving forces behind such changes.
Land allocation to commercial farms is done at the expense of forests and no CBA is conducted by the responsible government bodies (Tadesse & Masresha, 2007). A number of studies that looked at land allocation patterns among small-scale farmers assumed conversion under subsistence agriculture, assuming that challenges of development, poverty reduction and environmental preservation can be solved by merely focusing on sustainable management of NTFPs (Mohammed & Wiersum, 2011), ignoring the indirect and non-use values of forests (Reichhuber & Requate, 2007; Schravesande-Gardei, 2006). The said studies focused on livelihood strategies adopted by farmers and the contribution of the NTFPs to household income and believed that as long as households get a certain percentage of income from the diversification, they might as well preserve the forests. Other studies, on the contrary, assumed that farmers convert land to agricultural use in pursuit of profit maximisation motives and that single-benefit streams, especially NTFPs, could not prevail over agriculture to preserve forests (Belcher & Screckenberg, 2007; Wood, 2007). This is the case even in places where there is forest coffee production (Belcher et al.2005; Ros-Tonen & Wiersum 2005). Studies carried out to identify drivers of LUC in Ethiopia’s SNNPR were at catchment, zone, watershed and village levels, based on perceptions, analyses and descriptive statistics, employing semi-structured and face-to-face interviews for data collection. These studies identified the following causes of LUC in the SNNPR: population pressure, lack of land tenure security and poor infrastructure development (Daniel, 2008); drought and migration, changes in settlement and land tenure policy, and changes in the severity of livestock diseases (Robin et al., 2000); the expansion of large-scale plantations and community field crop, lack of a clear land use plan, change in the farming system due to population growth (Dereje, 2007); geographic properties, socio-political changes, unstable land tenure principles, agricultural development and the improvement of transport capacity (Dessie & Christiansson, 2008).
Approach and methods of this study
Sub-optimal land use patterns, particularly conversion of land to agricultural uses, could arise because of the absence of markets for key services of the forest ecosystem and ignoring the uncertainty and irreversibility of the deforestation process. These problems can be addressed by reaching agreement among stakeholders, where compensation is given for the private loss arising from the choice of a socially beneficial land use choice. In addition, by identifying the drivers behind LUC, damaging policies may be modified and a shift may occur in unwanted LUC to other areas (Butler, 2011; Pearce et al., 1999). Hence there is a need to analyse whether existing forest stocks (and other land uses) are optimal, considering multiple uses of forests and the uncertainty facing the values of some of the forest services, to arrive at an optimal strategy of either developing more forestland or preserving the existing stock. In addition, identifying the drivers of LUC helps with identifying policy instruments that prevent unwanted LUC. This requires employing a stochastic framework for analysing the costs and benefits associated with forestland conversions by considering benefits foregone by protecting forests. In addition to market values, non-market values of regulating forest ecosystem services (together with their uncertainties) and the irreversible nature of forestland conversions are important to take into account in studying land use decisions.
Previous studies conducted in Ethiopia only focused on a few forest use benefits that have market value and others considered only the private benefits of forests in weighing the costs and benefits of LUCs as reviewed above. No study in the country attempted to examine the effects of uncertainty and irreversibility on land use decisions. In addition, in trying to identify the drivers of LUC, no study has tried to analyse the effects of potential socioeconomic variables and drivers that are observed at district level (scale). Hence this study adopted a stochastic dynamic optimisation framework to evaluate the tradeoff between forest conservation and conversion to other land uses. The land use share modelling approach is then employed to analyse drivers of LUCs among agriculture, grassland, shrubland and forestland uses.
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Preamble
1.2 Statement of the problem
1.3 Objectives of the study
1.4 Hypotheses of the study
1.5 Approach and methods of the study
1.6 Organization of the study
CHAPTER 2
STATUS OF FOREST RESOURCES AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND POLICY IN ETHIOPIA
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Status of Forest and other land uses and cover in Ethiopia
2.3 The ecological functions and characteristics of forest and other wooded land
2.4 Importance of the forestry sector to National and Household economy
2.5 Financial performance of the forestry sector
2.6 Management of forests in Ethiopia
2.7 Institutional and legal issues of land use in Ethiopia
2.8 Summary
CHAPTER 3
REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Approaches to study land use change
3.3 Land use decisions under uncertainty and irreversibility
3.4 LUCC studies in Ethiopia
3.5 Approach and methods of this study
3.6 Summary
CHAPTER 4
DRIVERS OF LAND USE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN NATIONS AND NATIONALITIES PEOPLE’S REGION OF ETHIOPIA
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Study Area
4.4 Econometric model specifications
4.5 The data and model variables
4.6 Empirical Result and Discussion
4.7 Summary and Conclusion
CHAPTER 5
FOREST CONSERVATION VERSUS CONVERSION UNDER UNCERTAIN MARKET AND ENVIRONMENTAL FOREST BENEFITS IN ETHIOPIA: THE CASE OF SHEKA FOREST
5.1 Introduction
5.2The study area
5.3 The analytical framework
5.4 Source of data and parameter values
5.5 Result and Discussion
5.6 Summary and conclusions
CHAPTER 6
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
6.1 Summary and conclusions of the study
6.2 Key policy recommendations
6.3 Limitations of the study
REFERENCES
