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Climate impacts on malaria
Of the climate sensitive vector-borne diseases, malaria is by far the most important. Climate change affects health through multiple pathways but rainfall and rising temperatures create ample conditions for the multiplication and spread of vectors and vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Malaria is the most important parasitic infection affecting humans, accounting for an estimated 300–500 million clinical cases worldwide with 90% of annual cases reported in sub-Saharan Africa (Reiter, 2008). This is five times the amount of the combination of HIV/AIDS, TB, measles, and leprosy cases and is responsible for one in every four childhood deaths, making malaria Africa’s biggest killer with regards to disease and infection (SaNTHNet, 2013). Malaria is responsible for the deaths of over one million people in Africa each year (Breman, 2001; Greenwood, 2005; Mishra et al, 2003; Snow et al, 2005; WHO, 2002). Although around 3.2 billion people — almost half of the world’s population — are reported to have been at risk of malaria between 2000 and 2015, as a result of the relative success of malaria intervention programmes globally, malaria incidence (the rate of new cases) fell by 37%. In the same period, although malaria death rates fell by 60% among all age groups and by 65% among children under five (WHO, 2015), the disease continues to be the main killer in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the African region was home to 89% of malaria cases and 91% of malaria deaths (WHO, 2015). Malaria is known to be highly climate-sensitive and has remained the main killer in the vulnerable developing world. Human-induced climate change reflects the mounting pressures of human numbers and intensified economic activity (McMichael, 2009).
Problem statement
Increasing rainfall and rising temperature is causing health concerns. It is highly likely and now certain and that climate change will impact on health by creating an environment that is conducive to the growth of disease-spreading insects, for example, mosquitoes (IPCC, 2001). Anopheles (female) mosquitoes, for example, are the known vectors responsible for transmitting malaria to the hosts, for example, humans. Over past few decades, there has been a reported case of malaria in various regions of the world where malaria cases and deaths were previously unheard of. Climate variation may include shifts in the distribution of diseases into areas that were previously disease-free, or may result in a change in severity at a given location (IPCC WG2, 2007). This reality has prompted studies to examine whether variations in temperatures and rainfall could help to demystify the link with malaria. A combination of rainfall and rising temperatures has provided a haven where malaria parasites hatch, multiply, and spread to hosts, thereby increasing the likelihood of observing malaria in regions where previously there were none.
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
Introduction
1.1. Traditional economy and the emergence of climate change
1.2. Climate impacts on human health
1.3. Climate impacts on malaria
1.4. Malaria in South Africa’s Limpopo Province
1.5. Context of the study
1.6. Conceptual framework
1.7. Problem statement
1.8. Goals and objectives
1.9. Hypotheses
1.10. Justification of the study
1.11. Organisation the thesis
CHAPTER 2: REVIEW
Introduction
2.2. Effects of climate change on human health
2.3. Africa and vulnerability to climate change impacts
2.4. Likelihood of climate impacts in Africa
2.5. Impacts of extreme rainfall, lack of rainfall (drought) and temperature
2.6. Climate change and vector-borne (communicable) diseases — malaria
2.7. Climate impact on malaria in South Africa
2.8. Chapter Summary
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
Introduction
3.1. Study area
3.2. Data and data sources
3.3. Models
3.4. Models specification and description
3.5. Strengths and limitations of methods
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS
Introduction
4.1. Results: Objective 1: Spatial analysis
4.2. Results Objective 2: Statistical (Econometric) analysis
4.3. Results: Objective 3: sensitivity tests
4.4. Chapter Summary
CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION
Introduction
5.1. Discussion: Literature Review
5.2. Objective 1: Discussion – Spatial Analysis
5.3. Objective 2: Discussion of the statistical analysis
5.4. Objective 4: Discussion of sensitivity analysis
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
6.1. Summary and conclusion
6.2. Policy recommendations and future research
6.3. Scientific contributions
